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How does VersionOne calculate the forecast completion date?

Background

How does VersionOne calculate the 'forecast' release completion date? 

Answer

The following table describes the input fields used manually calculate the predicted release date.

Field Inputs

Calculations

Periods

It's helpful to start by calculating period start and end dates.

Period 1 Start Date = Start Date (from inputs)
Period 1 End Date = Period 1 Start Date + ( Period (from inputs) - 1 day )

Period 2 Start Date = Period 1 Start Date + Period (from inputs)
Period 2 End Date = Period 1 End Date + Period (from inputs)

...And so on

Remaining Estimate

Remaining Estimate = Open Estimate as of current date PLUS any Closed Estimate that has been closed in the Current Period

  • Current Period is the period (see above period calculations) in which the current date falls

  • Closed Estimate can be determined by exporting the backlog (open and closed) and summing the estimate of closed items with a Last Changed Date on or after the Start Date of the Current Period

Projected Velocity

Projected Velocity = Average of Closed Estimate in the previous 3 completed periods

  • previous 3 completed periods = the 3 periods prior to the Current Period

  • Closed estimate in a period can be calculated by summing the estimate of closed items with a Last Changed Date in a period

  • Zero's are excluded from the average calculation.

Additional Periods to Completion (let's call this number N)

Additional Periods to Completion = Remaining Estimate / Projected Velocity

  • rounded up to the nearest whole number

  • the chart should contain this number of bars in the 'projected' portion

Forecast Completion

Forecast Completion = End Date of the Nth period

  • Starting with the current period as Period 1

Other items of note

  1. The date in the hover over the last bar should match the date in the Forecast Completion field.

  2. The Projected Closed in the hover over the last bar should match the total open estimate plus any closed estimate since the Start Date (from inputs).  Note that Projected Closed will not match Remaining Estimate

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