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Release Forecasting Report

This feature is available in Enterprise and Ultimate editions.

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Overview

The Release Forecasting report simultaneously shows forecasted end dates based on optimistic, pessimistic, and average velocity based on historical data and allows the user to perform What If scenarios by overriding some or all of the inputs. These velocity values are calculated from the visible historical data. It also indicates the end date of the selected project so you can compare forecasted dates to the planned end date. In addition, you can forecast end dates based on total estimate or workitem count.

 

Accessing This Report

  1. On the main menu, click Release Planning, and then select Release Forecasting.

  2. Select from the report filters below, and then click Go.

Report Filters/Parameters

  • Start Date: The first date the report begins calculating data.
    • For project-based reports, the default start date is the project start date.

    • For sprint/iteration-based reports, the default start date is the sprint/iteration start date.

    • For member-based reports, the default start date is 13 weeks prior to the current date.

    • If the start date is set to the current date or later, no data displays.

  • Interval: The frequency of the data points.
  • Team: Shows Team-specific data for the project or program. The default value is "All" or "Blank".
  • Aggregation Type: Determines how the data is aggregated.  Valid values are:
    • Total Estimate - Sum the Estimate values. 

    • Workitem Count - Count of work items regardless of estimate value. 

Slice Remaining:
Segments the chart by workitem none, priority, or type.

Release Forecasting

Interpreting this Report

For the selected period, this report shows a graphical representation of change trends for both historical and forecasted projections.

  • The system calculates the number of periods required to complete the Remaining Estimate and the end date of the last required period.

  • The forecasted period begins at the start of the current period, as determined by the start date and period selections.

  • The end date calculated will always assume the full final period is completed.

  • Team filter applies to the entire data-set giving you the ability to forecast for a team. 

What-if Scenarios

If you want to perform "What-If" scenarios with Release Forecasting, follow the steps below.

Release Forecasting What-If?

  1. Click the What-If button. The scenario fields display

  2.  Select from the options described below, and then click Go.

    Field

    Description

    Default Value

    Remaining

    Includes the remaining work value and ignores the actual value returned from the historical query.

    Blank.  Uses the value returned from the historical query.

    Velocity

    Includes the delivery velocity and ignores any calculated values.  Using this field results in only one forecasted end date.

    Blank. Calculates velocity based on slope values.

    Workitem Type

    Shows the remaining work calculation for the selected workitem.  Valid values are All, Story, Defect.

    All.  Remaining work considers all workitem types.

    Backlog Group

    Shows only workitems in the selected Backlog Group and all child groups are considered in the remaining work calculation. 

    All.  Remaining work considers all workitems regardless of the Backlog Group assignment.

    Priority

    Only shows workitems with the selected priorities in the remaining work calculation. 

    None. Remaining work considers all workitems regardless of priority assignment.

Forecast Calculation

The algorithm to forecast potential completion dates begins with the retrieval of historical values for remaining and completed backlog items based on the Start Date, Interval, Team, and Aggregation parameters.   The completed values are then analyzed to determine the largest slope change, the smallest non-zero slope change, and the average of all slope values; include those intervals when there is no slope change.

  • The largest value is used when forecasting the Optimistic End Date.

  • The smallest non-zero value is used when forecasting the Pessimistic End Date.

  • The average value is used when forecast an Average End Date.

The remaining value is determined by the number of active backlog items and your aggregation selection.  The number of additional periods is calculated by dividing the remaining value by the appropriate slope value (largest, smallest, average). The forecast end date is determined by adding the number of additional periods to the last interval.

Because periods with no slope are considered when calculating the average, it is possible for the Pessimistic End Date to precede the Average End Date.

It is possible to see less than three lines in the following scenarios:

  • A Velocity value is specified in the What-If box
  • When there is insufficient historical data visible to forecast all 3 dates